Sometimes in college football, a player’s name carries as much weight as his performance. Arch Manning knows something about that. For years, the Texas quarterback has been viewed as a future NFL star, partly because of his famous family name and partly because of the expectations that followed him into Austin.

But football has a way of changing the conversation. Right now, an Oklahoma State quarterback named Drew Mestemaker is getting the kind of attention Manning was expected to command.

According to an ESPN poll of 25 NFL scouts and executives, Mestemaker is now the clear favourite to be the first quarterback selected in the 2027 NFL Draft. He received 17 first-place votes. That’s quite a change from August, when he didn’t receive a single one.

Drew Mestemaker Wasn’t Supposed to Be Here

Mestemaker hasn’t exactly stumbled into this opportunity. The sophomore has thrown for 2,326 yards and 20 touchdowns, with six interceptions. Those are impressive numbers, particularly for someone who wasn’t part of the early quarterback conversation.

Manning’s season has gone in the other direction. He’s thrown for 1,507 yards and 12 touchdowns, but has also been intercepted seven times. He received seven first-place votes in the August poll. This time, he received none.

That’s a significant shift in how NFL evaluators are viewing the two players. There’s a lesson here for football fans, although it isn’t necessarily that Manning has suddenly become a bad quarterback or that Mestemaker is guaranteed to become an NFL star. Neither conclusion would be fair.

Arch Manning Is Finding the Expectations Difficult to Meet

Manning is still playing under enormous expectations, and the Texas program hasn’t made things easy for him this season. Mestemaker, meanwhile, has the benefit of a breakout year and an opportunity to change how people see him. That’s how these things work. Draft reputations can take years to build and a few Saturdays to change.

What I find interesting is that Mestemaker has gone from being largely overlooked to being the quarterback NFL scouts are talking about most. Manning has gone from being the obvious name to having to answer questions about his performance.

There’s still plenty of football to play, and April’s draft is a long way off. But the next time these two quarterbacks are discussed, the conversation may sound very different. Sometimes the biggest surprise in college football isn’t who falls. It’s who steps forward when nobody is looking.

Related: Arch Manning Has Something to Prove at Texas, and Nick Saban Knows How