Paul Skenes was universally viewed as one of, if not the consensus best pitcher in all of baseball entering the 2026 season.
A 1.62 ERA in April and a subsequent 2.87 ERA in May, after a rough first start of the year in New York against the Mets, had Skenes looking every bit like that. However, things have taken a major turn since mid-June, and Pittsburgh Pirates fans are understandably worried about their ace.
Skenes’ ERA on the season has risen by more than a full run during that span, going from 2.84 to 3.96, while his velocity has been down at times along the way. Everyone has been trying to figure out what’s wrong with the three-time NL All-Star, and Pirates insider John Perrotto provided a few potential reasons on Tuesday, including fatigue and what multiple people believe could be offseason weight gain.
“Many hitters feel that Skenes has been suffering from “dead arm” syndrome, a result of having to expedite his preparation for the season by pitching in high-leverage situations in the World Baseball Classic. No one has suggested Skenes is hiding an injury, but they do say that his pitches lack crispness.
Secondly, multiple people have said Skenes looks heavier this season and less athletic. They cite the possibility of carrying extra weight slowing down his delivery and causing the drop in his fastball velocity,”
The 24-year-old Skenes currently has a 9-10 record to go with his 3.96 ERA and a 162-36 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 24 starts so far this season.
While Skenes’ numbers aren’t all that bad on the surface, his expectations are far different and much higher than most others, and he simply hasn’t looked like himself of late.
Skenes has insisted that he’s healthy and unbothered by any changes in his velocity, but if his struggles continue, more questions and concerns are inevitably going to arise down the stretch of the season.
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