There’s a common saying in playoff hockey: Game 3 is the most important game of the series, especially when it’s the first in the opposing team’s building. Historically, teams that go up 3–0 in a best-of-seven series almost always close it out. So while the Toronto Maple Leafs have a 2-0 series lead over the Ottawa Senators, tonight’s Game 3 might be the turning point.

If the Maple Leafs Win, Are the Senators Toast?

If the Maple Leafs win and push the Senators to the brink, it’s hard to imagine Ottawa clawing back. But if the Senators protect home ice and cut the lead in half, this series suddenly shifts into high gear. Toronto needs to expect a desperate, high-tempo push, and match that intensity right from puck drop.

It may seem strange to call Game 3 more important than Game 1, but in this context, it fits. A win tonight for the Maple Leafs could all but bury Ottawa’s hopes. A loss, though, could crack the door open. Despite being up 2-0, Toronto hasn’t completely imposed its will, particularly at five-on-five, where Ottawa has found ways to tilt the ice.

Senators captain Brady Tkachuk tried to calm the narrative this week, repeating twice that there’s “not one ounce of panic” in the locker room. But that repetition might suggest the pressure is real. The Maple Leafs should expect Ottawa to come out flying — and they’ll need to be far more composed than they were during a disastrous second period in Game 2.

Game 2 Was Far from Perfect: It Included a Second Period to Forget

After a composed and confident first period in Game 2, the second period was arguably the worst the Maple Leafs have played this postseason. Possibly, it was one of their poorest periods all season. Toronto was overwhelmed in every facet. They were stuck in their own zone for long stretches, failed to complete clean exits, and couldn’t handle Ottawa’s aggressive forecheck.

The Senators generated 33 shot attempts to Toronto’s 7, outshot them 13–3, and dominated scoring chances 13–1. High-danger opportunities favored Ottawa 7–1, and they controlled a staggering 91% of the expected goals share. The Maple Leafs looked completely out of sync, with broken plays and missed coverage piling up. If not for solid goaltending and a bit of luck, that period alone could have been enough to flip the game.

The Maple Had a Better Third — But Made a Costly Error

To their credit, the Maple Leafs responded well in the third. They tightened their defensive structure, executed cleaner breakouts, and supported each other better through the neutral zone. It was a much-improved effort — until a single breakdown allowed Ottawa to tie the game late. One failed clear, one blown assignment, and suddenly the game was heading to overtime.

Still, the poise Toronto showed in regrouping after such a rough middle frame is a sign of growth. This is a group that’s been burned in past playoffs for not managing momentum. In Game 2, they bent but didn’t break — and ultimately found a way to win.

The Maple Leafs Bottom Line: The Game 3 Stakes Are Real

The Maple Leafs are in control, but this series is far from over. Game 3 offers a clear dividing line. Win, and they put Ottawa on the brink of elimination. Lose, and momentum shifts — potentially fast. The Senators aren’t going away quietly. And the Maple Leafs need to be ready for a fight.

Game 3 isn’t just another playoff game. It might be the one that decides everything.

Related: Blue Line Depth Becoming a Game-Changer for Maple Leafs