There’s something appealing about a team that might be better than people expect. The Toronto Raptors won 46 games last season, and now they have a chance to take another step forward. The question is how big that step might be.

The best-case scenario is an exciting one. If things fall into place, Toronto could win 54 games, finish near the top of the Eastern Conference, and head into the playoffs with home-court advantage. That’s a pretty good outcome for a team looking to build on last season. Of course, a lot has to go right to get there.

Kawhi Leonard Could Change the Picture

One huge reason to be optimistic is Kawhi Leonard. Toronto brought him in from the Los Angeles Clippers in a trade that sent Brandon Ingram and Gradey Dick the other way. If Leonard stays healthy and finds his place alongside Scottie Barnes, the Raptors could have an offensive weapon who makes life considerably harder for opposing teams.

Health is the obvious concern. Leonard needs to play a substantial number of games for this move to have the impact Toronto wants. But if he does, the Raptors could become a much tougher playoff matchup.

Barnes is another reason to feel good about the team’s chances. His continued development, along with Collin Murray-Boyles’ progress, could give Toronto more than one way to hurt opponents. The Raptors already have a defensive identity under Darko Rajakovic. Add more scoring punch to that foundation, and things could get interesting.

Fifty Wins Might Not Be Out of Reach

Not everybody expects a major leap. One prediction has Toronto finishing 44-38, while another sees a 48-34 record as a reasonable improvement. Both reflect the concerns about Leonard’s health, the centre position, and the quality of competition in the Eastern Conference.

Those are fair questions. Jakob Poeltl’s role will matter, and Toronto will need enough size and consistency inside to compete with the better teams. Staying healthy is one thing; having the depth to handle a long season is another.

Still, the 54-win prediction isn’t difficult to understand. If Leonard stays on the court, Barnes continues to grow, and the defence holds up, the Raptors could be better than last year’s 46-win team by a fair margin.

That doesn’t mean Toronto is suddenly a championship favourite. There will be difficult nights, and the team will have to prove it can handle the best opponents when the games matter most.

But that’s what makes this season interesting. The Raptors have a chance to surprise people, and a 50-win season would be a meaningful step forward. If everything breaks their way, they might do even better.

Related: The Raptors Have a Shooting Problem, but Not Just Three-Pointers