If Mitch Marner is allowed to walk in free agency, the Maple Leafs face a critical talent deficit that free agency alone may not solve. Statistically, Marner remains among the team’s most productive and complete players. His ability to drive offense, kill penalties, and tilt possession makes him exceptionally difficult to replace.
Pretending the Maple Leafs Could Get any Free-Agent Forward
Let’s pretend the Maple Leafs could replace Marner with any free agent forward in the NHL. The truth is that no single UFA in this year’s class is likely to replicate Marner’s 2024-25 season. Even if Treliving goes after multiple names, it’s hard to see how the production gap closes.
Would bringing in the Dallas Stars’ Matt Duchene (coming off an 82-point season) and a goal-scorer like the Chicago Blackhawks’ Ryan Donato (31 goals) make up the difference? Possibly — but not without cost. Add in someone like Nikolaj Ehlers, and the cap space evaporates fast. But, then the team is still gambling on chemistry and consistency.
What About the Maple Leafs Prospect Pool?
The outlook isn’t much brighter in the system. Easton Cowan might be a top-six forward in the future, but the prospect pool is thin beyond him. Other names like Hudson Malinoski (who’s playing at Providence College) or Cade Webber (who had a single goal in 60 games with the Toronto Marlies) aren’t projected difference-makers.
In addition, the Maple Leafs have only two picks in the first six rounds over the next three drafts. No surprise, the pipeline will start to look dangerously dry in the future.
Looking Ahead for the Maple Leafs
Looking further ahead to 2026–27, the team projects to have over $43 million in cap space — but only four forwards under contract. Two are Max Domi and David Kampf, which underscores the depth problem. Neither seem able to replace all that Marner brings.
That salary cap room could allow for a rebuild-on-the-fly, but only if the front office nails its free-agent signings and development curve.
Is the Situation a Window of Opportunity or a Hole in the Wall?
Some fans still see a window of opportunity. One fan recently argued that this team could have a solid three-year run if the upcoming $26 million in cap space is spent wisely and cited Washington’s rapid turnaround as a model.
But others point to a more sobering reality: the Maple Leafs may have already missed their best chance. With Marner likely gone, the team could be trending down in performance, playoff potential, and its ability to attract top-tier free agents.
