If Auston Matthews doesn’t sign by July 1, 2023, one NHL insider believes it is inevitable that the Toronto Maple Leafs will have to trade the dynamic forward. Even though it might be viewed as blasphemous to even mention the idea of moving the team’s current star, I wholeheartedly agree.

Andy Strickland of the Cam and Strick podcast noted during a recent show that he believes the Maple Leafs won’t be able to get the center signed and as a result, will look to move him before his no-trade clause kicks in ahead of the final season on his current NHL contract. I’m not sold Matthews is eager to depart, but if he’s giving even the slightest hint of exploring his options in the free market, the Leafs should jump before finding out the hard way it’s too late.

Some suggest Strickland is just trolling Maple Leafs’ fans. Others argue he’s got a point. The question is, how confident are the Maple Leafs that they can sign Matthews no matter what? Anything less than 100% means it’s time to move on.

Matthews intentionally only signed a five-year deal with the Leafs back when he re-upped with the organization and that almost immediately sparked questions about his desires to stay with the organization for the long haul. For the forward, it was about flexibility. For the Leafs, it was about accepting that it worked for their cap situation at the time. Now, as the Maple Leafs try to get over the hump of continually losing in the first round of the NHL playoffs and Matthews is walking into a situation eerily similar to the one Matthew Tkachuk had with the Calgary Flames last season, Strickland suggests the Leafs will have to practically win a Stanley Cup if the plan is to convince Matthews to stay.

Strickland explains, “Has anyone mentioned, by the way, that Auston Matthews is going to be traded this offseason?” He added, “I don’t think he’s going to re-sign there” and then asked, “You gonna lose him for nothin’?” Clearly, the team doesn’t want to lose their star player, but they have to weigh the risk of it against strong asset management.

Strickland argues that Maple Leafs’ management — whoever is running the team by the time this decision needs to be made — can’t afford to let Matthews steer himself into a free agency situation where he can simply walk away as a UFA and the organization gets nothing in return. He adds that if Toronto struggles again in a very competitive Eastern Conference, it might be time to move on. He notes, “If they lose early, and you’re going to get a boatload — obviously for Matthews — you can’t lose him for nothing and you’ll probably have to trade him this summer.” He joked that the team would get 20 first-round picks.

For more on comments made by Strickland in his podcast, or to see what Leafs fans are saying about the notion of trading Matthews, I’ve covered it in more detail at this link.

What If Matthews Hints He Wants To Stay, But Doesn’t Commit?

Some might argue that you can’t give up on one of the best players in the NHL. Doing so means you’ll lose the trade by default. So, what if Matthews hints that he wants to stay? Could there be a situation where the team puts faith in his word, even if he’s not signed on the dotted line by the time his no-trade clause kicks in?

Maybe the Maple Leafs hold out faith that they can eventually get a deal done. Maybe they believe they can win and that winning will keep him around. That said, going that route is risky and the best return will come a year in advance of a potential contract extension where an acquiring team can get permission to speak with him about an extension. Teams will line up to do what’s necessary to fit him into their current roster and cap structure. The Maple Leafs might be best to sell him to the highest bidder.

The Maple Leafs Must Do What’s Right For the Team

Trading Matthews if he won’t sign the moment he’s eligible and before he has all the leverage in any deal is the right play. The Maple Leafs need to keep control of the situation and that means keeping their options open to moving him where they want and when they want.

One thing to remember is that the Leafs will never be a rebuilding team. As such, the trick will be to get the best return, including players that would help immediately. That should be easy to do and with a core that still consists of Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares at forward, perhaps moving on from Matthews is the right decision. Frankly, it might be the move that forces the Leafs to do what they should have done a long time ago.

Toronto has been stuck in a cap situation that has seen GM Kyle Dubas continually add auxiliary pieces around an expensive top-four core that hasn’t gotten them anywhere in the postseason. Some have suggested the team has needed to pull the trigger and break that group up, but Dubas has been reluctant to do so. By moving Matthews, the team relieves itself of a huge salary cap obligation and gives the club a new path toward a more well-rounded roster.

Next: Maple Leafs and Blues Make Big Trade: Includes O’Reilly, Acciari