Is Mikko Rantanen’s Postseason Costing Mitch Marner Money?

The Colorado Avalanche’s 2024–25 season had no shortage of twists. First, a rocky four-game losing streak to start the year, and then an early-season goalie carousel. To top it all off, an emotional return of Gabriel Landeskog after nearly a three-year absence. It was a campaign driven by drama, comebacks, and tough decisions.

But no storyline proved more defining than the trade that sent longtime Avalanche star Mikko Rantanen to the Carolina Hurricanes. By the way, he was then sent to the Dallas Stars. Oh my, how that move has reshaped the playoff picture and potentially the NHL’s upcoming free agency market.



Rantanen Is Just Fine without MacKinnon

Rantanen, who began the season in Colorado after spending nearly a decade alongside Nathan MacKinnon, was unexpectedly dealt due to looming salary cap constraints. MacKinnon was locked into a $100 million contract, and Cale Makar’s next deal is on the horizon. Avalanche GM Chris MacFarland faced an impossible choice. Rather than risk losing Rantanen for nothing in free agency, he shipped him to the Hurricanes. The move stunned Rantanen and many around the league.

The trade seemed shaky initially, especially as Rantanen took time to settle. Eventually, as noted, Rantanen couldn’t commit to Carolina and was moved again to the Stars.

Then Came the Playoffs for Rantanen

Then came the playoffs, and that’s where everything changed. Now with the Stars after a deadline deal, Rantanen exploded in the first round. That was capped off by a Game 7 hat trick (with some vociferous finger-pointing) against his former team. With 18 points in 10 games, including back-to-back hat tricks, he’s now the leading scorer in the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

More importantly, Rantanen has already locked into an eight-year, $96 million contract with Dallas — a number that may already look like a bargain as his dominance continues.

So, How Does All This Impact the Maple Leafs?

This sets the stage for the next marquee moment: Mitch Marner’s looming free agency.

The Toronto Maple Leafs winger, who has put up elite regular-season numbers but continues to battle postseason perception issues, might become the highest-profile forward to hit the open market since Artemi Panarin in 2019. But with Rantanen off the board and earning $12 million annually, Marner’s eventual deal will now be judged in the shadow of a proven playoff force.

Despite 741 career points in just 657 games, Marner’s postseason resume (12 points in 10 games this year) still trails Rantanen’s in both production and puffed-up presence. And in a summer where forwards like Brock Boeser and Nikolaj Ehlers represent the next tier, Rantanen’s contract becomes the benchmark.

Is Mikko Rantanen having too solid a postseason for his new team? Will it erode Mitch Marner’s salary in his next contract?

Has Rantanen Risen the Contract Status or Lowered It for Other Players?

In a league where playoff performance increasingly defines value, Rantanen might have done more than eliminate his former team — he might have redefined what it costs to sign a star winger. And for Mitch Marner, that could mean a less expensive path to NHL free agency’s top dollar.

Related: Berube’s Plan for Marner and Matthews in Game 5?

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